France¡¯s shift towards greater autonomy and competition among its higher education institutions is likely to continue, despite a parliamentary upset for second-term president Emmanuel Macron.

His Ensemble party won 245 seats in the 19 June legislative election, well short of the 289 needed for a majority. The left-wing New People¡¯s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) coalition led by Jean-Luc M¨¦lenchon won 131, with Marine Le Pen¡¯s far-right National Rally coming third with 89.

Although Mr Macron enjoys sweeping presidential powers after winning re-election in April, Ensemble must still agree a coalition or voting deal with other parties to get legislation through parliament, with the Republicans and their 61 seats offering the most likely allies.

Early signals suggested that the once-dominant force of the French right may be reluctant to empower Mr Macron¡¯s centrist agenda. ¡°There is no question of a pact, or a coalition, or an agreement of any form whatsoever,¡± party leader Christian Jacob told local media.

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But Emiliano Grossman, associate professor of politics at Sciences Po, said this did not rule out cooperation in any form.

¡°Even if they don¡¯t manage to strike a deal on everything, they might strike a deal on some issues, and higher education could be part of that,¡± Dr Grossman told Times Higher Education.

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¡°I would assume that we¡¯ll continue moving towards more privatisation or more autonomy for universities, and more leeway in their capacity to self-organise and get onto the competitive market.¡±

A decades-long push towards more autonomy and competitive funding has been carried forward by left- and right-wing governments. A campaigning Mr Macron?told French universities?in January they were ¡°halfway¡± through the transformation.

That metamorphosis is opposed by many on the left, but Yves Surel, a professor in comparative politics at Panth¨¦on-Assas University (Paris 2), said that the opposition Nupes, which has agreed to sit as separate groups in parliament, would have ¡°only limited means to negotiate and obstruct¡± reforms.

¡°The very divided nature of the debate on these issues makes it difficult to envisage any compromise between Macron¡¯s liberal position, in the wake of the reforms of the last few years, and M¨¦lenchon¡¯s desire for a return to a public higher education service,¡± he said.

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Fragmentation means the coming days will see a flurry of horse-trading between political parties, and Professor Surel said it was ¡°too early to know how the political equilibrium will be set up¡±.

Regardless of how parties coalesce, under French law another legislative election cannot be called for a year, meaning Mr Macron¡¯s party must find a functional compromise with its political rivals.

Despite coming third, the election was a major victory for the far right, with Ms Le Pen¡¯s National Rally increasing its seats almost tenfold and cementing the party¡¯s entry into the political mainstream.

While its likely exclusion from political alliances will offer little chance to shape policy, the party¡¯s strengthened position in parliament is likely to give more prominence to its rhetoric, said Vincent Dubois, professor of sociology and political science at the University of Strasbourg.

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¡°They will probably fuel the absurd debate launched by Macron¡¯s former ministers on?¡®wokeism¡¯ and ¡®Islamo-leftism¡¯?that would gain ground in universities,¡± he said.

ben.upton@timeshighereducation.com