A group of more than 100 UK-based scientists has published an open letter warning against plans to ease lockdown measures, citing a “very high probability” that it could result in Covid-19 once again spreading “out of control” in the country.
The intervention, in which the scientists criticise the partial reopening of schools and of shops selling non-essential goods, follows news that lockdown measures have been eased?even though the UK’s pandemic alert status – previously cited by Boris Johnson, the prime minister, as the test that would determine when to ease restrictions on social interaction – remains at level four out of five.
The full text of the letter, and the signatories, follows:
An open letter against the lifting of the UK’s lockdown:
The UK is experiencing one of the worst outbreaks within the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. We have the highest total number of deaths within Europe, and are just behind the US globally, but with a higher death rate per million than the US itself. Despite a two-month lockdown, we are still experiencing unacceptable daily numbers of deaths, still in the hundreds, and an estimated 8,000 new infections a?day in England alone.
We are still in a situation where there is substantial community transmission, and most estimates of the reproduction number of the virus place it only just below?1. If this number exceeds?1, we will experience exponential growth in the number of cases and deaths once again.
Against this backdrop, the UK government is about to embark on a substantial relaxation of the social distancing measures that have been in place, including a partial reopening of schools and the retail sector in England.
There is a very high probability that relaxation of lockdown, coupled with a potential breakdown in public trust, will bring us back into a situation where the outbreak is once again out of control. If this happens, all the societal and financial sacrifices of the lockdown will have gone to waste, and we will likely experience a full-blown second wave. This would inevitably lead to a second lockdown, which could be more damaging and harder to implement.
As a group of UK-based scientists, we urge the government to reconsider, and to follow the science, postponing the relaxation of lockdown. The level of community transmission is still far too high for lockdown to be released, and should not be attempted before we have a substantial and sustained further drop in community transmission.
We need effective test, track and trace capacity to be implemented, transparent reporting of new case diagnoses in community and primary care settings on a daily basis, and the implementation of routine screening for high-risk key worker professions and settings to prevent asymptomatic transmission chains. These steps must be combined with clear government messaging.
Professor Aris Katzourakis, University of Oxford
Professor David Colquhoun FRS,?UCL
Professor Alan McNally, institute director, Institute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham
Professor Stuart Neil, head, department of infectious diseases, King’s College London
Professor Petros Ligoxygakis, University of Oxford
Dr Lewis Spurgin, University of East Anglia
Professor Michael Brockhurst, University of Manchester
Dr David Bonsall, University of Oxford
Dr Sterghios Moschos, Northumbria University
Dr Marc Dionne, Imperial College London
Dr Ravinder Kanda, Oxford Brookes University
Professor Kayla King, University of Oxford
Dr Katerina Kaouri, Cardiff University
Professor Steve Russell, University of Cambridge
Dr Steven Kelly, University of Oxford
Dr Ben Longdon, University of Exeter
Dr Alexander Suh, University of East Anglia
Daniel A. Villar, University of St Andrews
Dr Pierre-Philippe Dechant, York St John University
Dr Bede Constantinides, University of Oxford
Dr Ehmke Pohl, Durham University
Professor Adrian Hayday, FMedSci, FRS, The Francis Crick Institute
Dr Charlotte Odendall, King’s College London
Dr Nik Cunniffe, University of Cambridge
Dr Elisa Granato, University of Oxford
Professor James McInerney, head of the School of Life Sciences, University of Nottingham
Dr Karen Liu, King’s College London
Dr Michael Sweet, University of Derby
Professor Nicholas Loman, University of Birmingham
Dr Stephen Griffin, University of Leeds
Dr Tobias Warnecke, MRC London Institute of Medical Sciences and Imperial College London
Dr Rocio Martinez-Nunez, King’s College London
Dr Louise Johnson, University of Reading
Professor James A. R. Marshall, University of Sheffield
Dr Pari Skamnioti, University of Oxford
Dr Ian Goodhead, associate dean, University of Salford
Dr Edward Emmott, University of Liverpool
Professor Robin Weiss FRS,?UCL
Dr Markus Gwiggner MRCP, University Hospital Southampton
Dr Bernadette Young MRCP FRCPath, University of Oxford
Dr Tom Williams, University of Bristol
Dr Diarmuid O’Maoileidigh, University of Liverpool
Dr Nathaniel G. N. Milton, Leeds Beckett University
Professor Thomas Richards, University of Oxford
Dr David Cleary, University of Southampton
Dr Davor Pavolovic, University of Birmingham
Dr Iliana Georgana, University of Cambridge
Dr Rebecca J. Hall, University of Nottingham
Dr Andrew Macdonald, head of school, School of Molecular and Cellular Biology, University of Leeds
Professor Mark A. Hollywood, Dundalk Institute of Technology
Rebekah Penrice-Randal, University of Liverpool
Professor Greg Hurst, University of Liverpool
Dr Virve Enne,?UCL
Dr Maria Katsikogianni, University of Bradford
Prof Willem van Schaik, University of Birmingham
Dr Ville-Petri Friman, University of York
Dr Clare Lanyon, Northumbria University
Dr Louisa James, Queen Mary University of London
Professor John Hutchinson, Royal Veterinary College
Dr Kristine Arnvig,?UCL
Dr Alexander Wilcox, University of California, Davis
Dr Rui Pedro Galao, King’s College London
Dr Rebecca Berrens, University of Oxford
Dr Albert Bolhuis, University of Bath
Professor Simon Harvey, Canterbury Christ Church University
Dr Stefan Koestler, University of Cambridge
Professor Craig Winstanley, University of Liverpool
Dr Konstantin Blyuss, University of Sussex
Professor Ross Fitzgerald, University of Edinburgh
Professor William Wade, King’s College London
Dr Ben Ashby, University of Bath
Professor Aras Kadioglu, University of Liverpool
Dr Louis du Plessis, University of Oxford
Professor Janette Bradley, University of Nottingham
Dr Divya Venkatesh, Royal Veterinary College
Dr Sarah Bauermeister, University of Oxford
Dr Richard Sloan, University of Edinburgh
Dr Natalia Kapel, University of Oxford
Dr Blair L Strang, St George’s, University of London
Dr Justine Rudkin, University of Oxford
Professor Aziz Aboobaker, University of Oxford
Dr Marta ?lvarez, University of Bristol
Dr Liam Shaw, University of Oxford
Andrew Balmer, University of Cambridge
Dr Gavin Paterson, University of Edinburgh
Dr Sofia Morfopoulou,?UCL
Professor Neil Fairweather, Imperial College London
Professor Paul Wigley, University of Liverpool
Dr Alex Best, University of Sheffield
Dr Steven Allain, University of Kent
Dr Izzy Jayasinghe, University of Sheffield
Professor Cynthia Whitchurch, Quadram Institute Bioscience
Dr Helen Alexander, University of Edinburgh
Dr Christopher Davies, Cardiff University
Shadia Khandaker, University of Liverpool
Dr Amr Aswad, University of Oxford
Professor Kenneth Wilson, Lancaster University
Dr Peter Lund, University of Birmingham
Dr Thomas E. Woolley, Cardiff University
Dr Usama Kadri, Cardiff University
Professor Jay Hinton, University of Liverpool
Dr Thomas Patrick, University of Liverpool
Dr Matthew Brook, University of Edinburgh
Dr Lin Wang, UKRI
Professor Richard Birtles, University of Salford
