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I have been watching with interest the steady decline in the graduate premium (the extra lifetime earnings of a graduate over a non-graduate). This has gone from ?400,000 in 2002 (Walker and Zhu) to ?150,000 (Alan Johnson last year) to ?100,000 (Opinion, November 9). At this rate, it will stop being financially worthwhile in about 2009.

If you take the total cost of a degree (fees plus loss of earnings) and invest it in a building society at 4 per cent, then you'll get a better return than ?100,000 in about 18 years - less than half a working lifetime and (given student drop-out rates) at lower risk. Unless some universities can provide a better product at lower risk their future may be bleak.

Ormond Simpson.
Open University