Australia risks losing more international enrolments than Canada or the UK through coronavirus-related disruption, despite having managed the pandemic more effectively than its northern hemisphere rivals, a study suggests.

A by private educators Navitas predicts that Australia will attract a declining proportion of the international students enrolling with the four biggest anglophone education destinations.

Australia¡¯s market share will slip from 18 to 17 per cent while the UK¡¯s stake will rise from 19 to 20 per cent. Canada will do even better, increasing its proportion from 19 to 21 per cent.

The big loser will be the US, whose share will plunge from 44 to 37 per cent. Superimposed on a 20 per cent contraction in the overall number of internationally mobile students, this would cost the US 350,000 students.

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Australia would lose 107,000 foreign students under this scenario, with the UK ceding 82,000 and Canada 52,000.

The estimates are based on a survey of almost 400 agents that recruit for Navitas¡¯ global network of colleges and campuses. Report author Jonathan Chew said that rather than posing vague questions about the market¡¯s future, the researchers had quizzed respondents about more concrete matters.

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¡°We asked them: ¡®What do you think your customers and your business will see?¡¯¡± said Mr Chew, head of strategic insights and analytics with Navitas. ¡°Then we translated that into what it would mean for the whole sector.¡±

The study found that Australia¡¯s stance towards international students ¨C in particular, Canberra¡¯s failure to support them financially ¨C had not undermined its kudos for managing the health crisis.

Sixty-four per cent of agents said that in recent months, Australia had enhanced its reputation as safe and welcoming for international students. A similar 63 per cent of respondents said the same thing about Canada but only 30 per cent about the UK.

Nevertheless, up to 50 per cent of students remained unsure which country to target for study, and the UK stood to gain market share at Australia¡¯s expense. Mr Chew cited several reasons for this ¡°somewhat counter-intuitive¡± finding.

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He noted that Australia, unlike the UK, had temporarily closed its borders to international students. And as a northern hemisphere country, the UK might be better placed than Australia to capitalise on students avoiding the US.

But the main reason was ¡°momentum¡± from before the pandemic, when the UK had stimulated student flows by reinstating post-graduation work rights. ¡°We talk about students being ¡®sticky¡¯ ¨C once they¡¯ve made up their minds, they tend to follow through,¡± Mr Chew said.

¡°Pre-Covid, a lot of students shifted their attention to the UK. That follow-through is being played out in what our agents are predicting.¡±

He conceded that new factors, such as signs of a second wave of infections in the UK, could change the equation. ¡°It¡¯s definitely a moving feast,¡± he said.

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¡°The real question, though, in the absence of any certainty, is what students and parents are expecting at the key intake dates. What¡¯s their view of February 2021, for example, as a key decision point?

¡°Will they be able to go to Australia or New Zealand? How optimistic or pessimistic are they about that? That¡¯s going to determine whether they look elsewhere. The week-to-week volatility is important, but only to the extent that it influences expectations of those key dates.¡±

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com