Opposition is mounting to?the Australian government¡¯s plan to?cap international student numbers, amid parliamentary debate on?the proposal.

An analysis by advisory firm SPP has found that a?cut of?30,000 to?the 130,000-odd overseas enrolments across Victoria¡¯s eight universities would wipe out 14,000 jobs and cost the state A$6.5?billion (?3.4?billion) over three years.

According to a summary of the report, which is based on institutional accounts and trade and research data, international education generates A$11.5?billion in ¡°economic value¡± for Victoria. On top of tuition fees, spending by each student and their visiting family exceeds A$50,000.

Overseas students comprise almost one-third of enrolments in a university sector that contributes A$28.7?billion in ¡°total economic impact¡± and produces more than twice as much research and development spending as either government or industry, the analysis found.

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¡°Limiting the entry of international students¡­risks damaging the economy, vital research and our standing and impact in the region,¡± said Monash University deputy vice-chancellor Craig Jeffrey.

Meanwhile, the representative body for big business has warned the government not to ¡°cannibalise one of our long-term national advantages¡± by capping international enrolments.

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¡°We are playing with Australia¡¯s fourth largest export at a time when our economy is on a knife¡¯s edge,¡± Business Council of Australia chief executive Bran?Black wrote in the .

¡°International students accounted for almost a quarter of all GDP [gross domestic product] growth over the year to March 2024. The sector was worth A$48?billion in 2023 and employed over 200,000 people. It¡¯s 48?billion reasons to think twice before we cut too hard.¡±

International education is South Australia¡¯s largest export, with earnings of A$3.15?billion last year, according to the state government, which backed efforts to disrupt ¡°unscrupulous providers¡± but warned against institutional caps.

In a submission to the Senate committee considering the proposal, South Australia said it had not experienced the post-Covid surge in international enrolments experienced by its eastern neighbours, and that visa policy changes since last December had caused a 10?per cent decline in its new foreign enrolments.

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¡°There needs to be a long-term perspective on the international education sector and not a reaction to only the current trajectory of growth,¡± the submission says.

The Group of Eight said the government was ¡°rushing this legislation through parliament without proper consultation¡±. It said that if its members¡¯ international enrolments were capped at pre-Covid levels, the ¡°potential immediate impact¡± would be A$5.35?billion and more than 22,500 jobs.

¡°The government is making a critical mistake by using international students as a scapegoat to manage a short-term spike in migration and ease housing pressure,¡± said chief executive Vicki Thomson.

Privately, some university executives blame the big research-intensive universities for provoking the government crackdown by allowing their international enrolments to grow unreasonably high. Leaders at some institutions back a common cap on the share of foreign students rather than the bespoke institutional limits proposed by the government.

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University of Queensland chancellor Peter Varghese wants foreign enrolments capped at 40?per cent, while Deakin University vice-chancellor Iain Martin suggests 35?per cent and RMIT University vice-chancellor Alec Cameron prefers 33?per cent.

Professor Cameron says a cap of this nature would be preferable to the indiscriminate visa rejections and processing delays experienced since last December.

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com