China¡¯s safety warning about studying in Australia is based on flimsy evidence and will have limited impact, observers say.

In a posting on its Chinese language website, China¡¯s education ministry warned students to weigh the risks of visiting Australia following an upsurge in ¡°discriminatory incidents against Asians¡± during the pandemic.

China¡¯s embassy in Canberra issued a similar warning in December 2017, following an attack against two Chinese school students in a bus interchange, and amid bilateral tension over Australia¡¯s proposed anti-espionage legislation.

However, the new warning has come from a Beijing-based central agency during a pandemic. No other country has been the subject of such a warning this year.

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People of Chinese and Asian appearance have experienced increasing discrimination around the world during the coronavirus crisis. A February identified problems in the US, Canada, the UK, continental Europe, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as Australia.

One source questioned how concerned Australia should be about a travel advisory issued during a period when travel was impossible anyway because of pandemic-related border closures. He said Beijing would take more precipitous action than merely issuing an advisory if it ¡°really wanted to put the brakes on¡±.

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Phil Honeywood, CEO of the International Education Association of Australia, said the travel restrictions offered a window of opportunity to ¡°crank up the ministerial-level discussions¡± and resolve differences.

¡°Chinese families, by word of mouth, have known that Australia¡¯s a safe, welcoming, multicultural country for many years,¡± he added. ¡°With over 200,000 Chinese students coming here every year, the word-of-mouth reputation will go a long way to mitigate the reputational hit from official advisories.¡±

The December 2017 safety warning appeared to have little effect on Chinese people¡¯s appetite for study in Australia. Some 2 per cent more student visa applications were lodged from China than in December 2016, with numbers rising 4 per cent over the following six months.

South Korea also experienced a slight increase in Chinese enrolments between 2017 and 2018, despite travel restrictions imposed by Beijing in mid-2017 amid a over a US missile defence system.

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However, New Zealand¡¯s international education industry suffered a significant downturn following a Chinese government warning about exploitation of students in English language colleges in the mid-2000s. Chinese enrolments in New Zealand subsequently collapsed by about 44 per cent.

Mr Honeywood said this was unlikely to happen to Australia¡¯s ¡°more mature¡± industry.

Innovative Research Universities chief executive Conor King said that while there had been an increase in comments about China ¡°because of Covid¡±, it entailed ¡°no serious danger¡±.

¡°We want Chinese students to be able to come back,¡± he said. ¡°But part of that is expecting that people will make comments about the way China operates in places like Hong Kong.

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¡°People will put out their views. That¡¯s part of the benefit of coming to an Australian university. You hear points you may not like, and you can put your counter case.¡±

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com