Disadvantaged students will need to be significantly over-represented in this decade¡¯s university commencements to give Australia any hope of meeting an equity target, modelling suggests.

An by the Innovative Research Universities (IRU) has found that low socio-economic status (SES) students ¨C defined as those from the most disadvantaged quartile of the population ¨C would need to constitute more than one in three new enrolments to raise their share of overall university places to one in five by 2030.

A uniform 20 per cent target at every institution would prove almost impossible for universities?that currently have relatively few disadvantaged enrolments. Across the prestigious Group of Eight universities, for example, almost two-thirds of new students over the next seven years would need to be low-SES.

The ¡°unintended consequences¡± of such a policy could include resource-rich universities poaching disadvantaged students from poorer institutions more accustomed to teaching them.

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The paper models several other scenarios to boost low-SES participation across the sector by funnelling disproportionate numbers of disadvantaged students into the institutions that already enrol more than their share.

The analysis identifies 15 ¡°equity intensive¡± institutions that admit 20 per cent or more of their students from low-SES areas, led by Central Queensland, Southern Queensland, Western Sydney and Federation universities.

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IRU said it had undertaken the modelling as a service for the Universities Accord, which has been tasked with recommending a target to boost participation by students from under-represented backgrounds.

IRU chief executive Paul Harris said that the network had chosen a 20 per cent target as a ¡°setting off point¡± for the modelling. The figure, originally proposed in 2008 with a 2020 deadline, was ¡°unfinished business¡± from the Bradley Review of Higher Education.

Mr Harris said a ¡°nuanced analysis¡± of students in different parts of the country, and the roles different universities played in meeting their needs, highlighted the need for ¡°fine-grained¡± information about demography and disadvantage.

¡°If we [say] every university has to get to 20 per cent by 2030, it¡¯s just not going to happen. We should be trying to target support and funding to the areas that need it most, and the students that need most support.¡±

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One way to do this would be to adopt ¡°weighted¡± targets acknowledging the demographic differences between the states and territories. The paper says just 3 per cent of Australian Capital Territory residents live in low-SES neighbourhoods compared with some 29 per cent of Victorians, 32 per cent of South Australians and 40 per cent of Tasmanians.

The analysis found that if state and territory profiles of disadvantage were factored in, 17 universities could be deemed ¡°equity intensive¡±, with the University of Canberra easily topping the list.

The study also found that completion targets for low-SES people would be ¡°even more challenging¡± than admission targets, because disadvantaged students were about 50 per cent more likely to drop out of university than their well-heeled counterparts.

¡°Universities¡­differ in satisfaction and completion rates for students from low SES backgrounds, indicating that these students may be better supported at some universities than others,¡± the study notes.

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The modelling found that to meet a 20 per cent target amid 2 per cent annual growth in overall student numbers, 35 per cent of the new enrolments would need to come from low-SES areas ¨C up from their current share of 17 per cent.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com ?