Starting next year, Hong Kong¡¯s eight publicly funded universities will be able to admit twice as many ¡°non-local¡± undergraduate students, its chief executive has announced, in what comes as welcome news to the island¡¯s universities.

The government cap on non-locals will lift from the current 20 per cent to 40 per cent in September 2024, in his second annual policy address, confirming news that has been anticipated?in the sector for some months.

While controversial among some Hong Kongers, who worry that the decision could disadvantage local students, it is?generally viewed by academics as a positive move for the island¡¯s most prestigious universities ¨C already some of the world¡¯s most international, mostly thanks to their?large intakes from mainland China.

The current cap on the number of non-local undergraduate students has remained steady for more than a decade, , from 10 per cent to 20 per cent, following an announcement by then chief executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen.

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The recent announcement is meant to address the island¡¯s looming demographic decline. Earlier this year, media and a record low birth rate. This, paired with a surge in emigration following the passage of the National Security Law in 2019 and subsequent Covid-19 pandemic, has prompted questions over the sector¡¯s future.

Academics were largely supportive of the relaxation of the cap, saying it would help Hong Kong attract the most promising students.

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¡°It is definitely good news for universities,¡± said Lewis Ting On Cheung, professor of social sciences at the Education University of Hong Kong.

More fee-paying overseas students could also help raise more revenue to support institutional costs, he said, alluding to the fact that non-local students pay several times more than their local peers.

Professor Cheung believed that lifting the cap ¡°helps the universities to attract bright students from other countries¡±.

Gerard Postiglione, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, agreed. ¡°Any measure that diversifies intake while sustaining quality is good news for higher learning,¡± he said.

He noted that it was rare for institutions elsewhere in the world to set aside an overwhelming majority of seats for locals.

¡°I look at it this way, 15 per cent of Harvard University¡¯ students are from Boston and 36 per cent of Stanford University students come from California.¡±

William Lo, associate professor in comparative education at the Education University of Hong Kong, noted that it remains to be seen how quickly an increase in non-local students will follow.

Aside from the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong institutions are targeting countries in China¡¯s Belt and Road Initiative ¨C where fewer families are able to pay the full sticker price.

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¡°The question remains whether the government or universities will provide more scholarships to non-local students. This is an important factor, particularly as the income levels in BRI countries are lower,¡± he said.

Another academic, who wished to remain anonymous given his criticism of the policy, believed that regardless, demand would be strong from mainland China ¨C something that could prove detrimental to local students.

¡°Mainland students will flock to study in Hong Kong, with the unintended consequence that local¡­students may find it more difficult to get into top UGC universities,¡± he said, adding that many may be pushed to study at lower and middle tier institutions.

¡°The government¡¯s sudden idea of relaxing quotas to 40 per cent will have unintended consequences,¡± he warned.

Huan Li, a doctoral researcher in the University of Hong Kong¡¯s (HKU) Faculty of Education, was more upbeat.

¡°If there are no students attending private universities, then these institutions would not be able to operate, let alone improve their quality,¡± he said.

Like other researchers, though, he said the sector would struggle to find accommodation for more overseas students.

¡°Hong Kong universities are already unable to guarantee housing for all local students,¡± most of whom commute, he said.

Professor Postiglione agreed. Asked what universities should do to prepare for more non-locals, he was emphatic.

¡°Three adjustments are needed: housing, housing, and housing.¡±

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pola.lem@timeshighereducation.com