The fate of the current leader of the UK¡¯s biggest higher education union appeared to be hanging in the balance as members voted in an election that will determine the future of industrial relations in the sector for much of the rest of the decade.

Members of the University and College Union (UCU) have begun?casting their ballots to elect a new general secretary ahead of the 1 March deadline, with the result due to be announced shortly afterwards.

Jo Grady, a University of Sheffield lecturer who has led the union for the past five years, is being?challenged by three candidates?¨C Saira Weiner, Vicky Blake and Ewan McGaughey ¨C as she seeks a second term in office.

While enjoying strong name recognition and the power of incumbency, commentators said Dr Grady¡¯s sometimes confrontational approach to the role ¨C and a?lack of progress in securing better pay and conditions?¨C may reduce her vote compared with 2019, when she?won with 15,000 first and second preference votes?on a turnout of 20 per cent.

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Turnout is traditionally low in trade union elections, said Duncan Adam, a senior lecturer at Manchester Metropolitan University who specialises in industrial relations, but he added that successive strike ballots held by the union in recent years may have helped to engage the membership in democratic processes.

This needed to be weighed against the disillusionment many felt with the union after the?last strike ballot failed, Dr Adam said. On turnout, he predicted ¡°we¡¯re not going to see it go up to 35 or 40 per cent but nor will we see it drop through the floor¡±, which he felt favoured Dr Grady, more than her challengers.

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Gregor Gall, visiting professor of industrial relations at the University of Leeds, said despite ¡°some disquiet¡± over the way Dr Grady has?approached the post ¨C including questions over her relationship with the union¡¯s higher education committee and her use of direct communication with members ¨C ¡°I¡¯d say she¡¯s likely to win¡­she will carry a certain cachet as the incumbent¡±.

But Michael Carley, a senior lecturer in mechanical engineering at the University of Bath, said there was a ¡°strong chance¡±?the incumbent will be unseated.

Dr Carley, who is himself supporting Ms Blake for the leadership, said a lot of Dr Grady¡¯s supporters from 2019 ¡°were now quite open about their disappointment in Jo Grady, and her failure to live up to commitments she gave when she ran five years ago¡±.

Ms Blake, a past president of UCU, has collected several high-profile endorsements from union activists and Dr Carley said she enjoyed ¡°strong recognition amongst members¡±.

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Professor Gall agreed Ms Blake and Ms Weiner ¨C the candidate of the UCU Left faction ¨C were relatively prominent in the union ¡°but I¡¯m not sure their constituency of support ¨C which is mainly amongst the more active members ¨C is enough to beat Grady¡±.

Professor McGaughey, who has not had a high-ranking union role, has also tried to pin some of the blame for past mistakes on the three other candidates who have held union positions for several years.

tom.williams@timeshighereducation.com