A ¡°tremendous¡± increase in the number of student visa applications withdrawn since a ban on dependants shows the UK is facing a drop in demand but not quality, according to a new report.

shows that the number of sponsored study-related visas issued so far this year?has fallen by 44 per cent since students were banned from bringing?family members?with them, unless they are on postgraduate research courses.

However, with the bulk of visas issued during the third quarter of the year, has warned that this is just the ¡°tip of the iceberg¡±.

With the proportion of applications refused remaining low ¨C at just 4 per cent ¨C the report finds that refusal rates have played ¡°only a minimal role¡± in the overall dip in student visas issued so far this year.

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¡°°Õ³ó±ðre¡¯s also been a tremendous spike in withdrawn applications since the dependants policy announcement, further highlighting how the UK is experiencing a demand decline rather than a quality decline,¡± it says.?

A total of 3,587 main applicant study visa applications were withdrawn in the first six months of 2024 ¨C a ¡°startling¡± 748 per cent increase on 423 during the same period in 2023, and considerably more than any other year on record.

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The controversial ban on students bringing dependants came into effect in January under the previous government, but looks set to remain in place under the recently elected Labour administration.

¡°While the full effect of this change won¡¯t be known until the fall, (this) data illustrates how many students, especially those with families, are simply looking to start their international education elsewhere,¡± the report warns.

ApplyBoard finds that Nigerian, Bangladeshi and Sri Lankan students have been among the biggest falls in demand in 2024 ¨C all of which have among the highest dependant to main applicant ratio.

However, its report says that the recent figures are not all ¡°dire¡±, and highlighted some ¡°potential for optimism¡±, including some student populations?have seen record demands for UK study visas.

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Nearly 34,000 Pakistani students were issued a study visa for the year ending in June 2024 ¨C a 17 per cent annual rise?that took?the country above?Nigeria to become the UK¡¯s third largest source of students.

Meanwhile, visas issued to Nepal grew by 63 per cent over this time, which ApplyBoard said reinforces their belief that Nepal is ¡°poised to alter the international student landscape across the globe in the coming decade¡±.

The company urged UK institutions to focus on recruiting from any of the emerging student populations that grew in both the year ending June and the first half of 2024 ¨C including Nepal, Pakistan, Myanmar, Kenya and Zimbabwe.

ApplyBoard also said that the UK sector can take confidence that the graduate route ¡°looks here to stay¡± under Labour, and that Australia¡¯s new international student cap can offer ¡°potential for positive momentum¡±.

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¡°°Õ³ó±ð UK benefited when Australia¡¯s borders were closed for two years in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, so it would not surprise us to see a renewed spike in interest for UK institutions due to the forthcoming Australian cap,¡± it concludes.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com