The UK government¡¯²õ delay in locking down society in the spring was the ¡°biggest mistake¡± of the pandemic, according to Imperial College London epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who also praised the global scientific community¡¯²õ ¡°remarkable¡± response to?Covid-19.

The former key adviser to the UK government during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic was speaking at Times Higher Education¡¯²õ THE?Live virtual conference.

Professor Ferguson, the head of Imperial¡¯²õ Covid-19 response team, was asked about the successes and failures of the UK¡¯²õ?pandemic response in an interview with THE editor John?Gill.

On successes, Professor Ferguson said the UK had ¡°eventually¡± scaled up testing to levels that were ¡°some of the highest in Europe, if not the highest¡±.

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He also said the UK had a?more ¡°sophisticated surveillance system than almost any country in?Europe¡±, giving the examples of the Office for National Statistics survey of infection rates in the general population and the Imperial REACT study.

¡°Funnily enough, I?think government has been informed ¨C not driven ¨C by the science and the scientific advisory structures have worked well,¡± he continued.

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However, Professor Ferguson added: ¡°I?think clearly the biggest mistake was the time taken to lock?down.¡±

There were ¡°multiple causes¡± of that delay, but the biggest issue, ¡°shared with a?number of European countries¡±, was ¡°too?much time was spent early?on¡± testing ¡°a?few hundred¡± travellers returning from China and Asia when efforts would have been better focused on those returning from infection hotspots in Europe, he said.

The UK ¡°didn¡¯t stand up surveillance [of infections] in hospitals anywhere near fast enough¡±, when this ¡°would have given a?handle on the scale of the epidemic¡± and allowed a?faster response, he continued.

This surveillance of infections in hospitals would be crucial in any future pandemic, Professor Ferguson said. ¡°You have to expect emerging infections to spread globally, and we need to pick them up in our country earlier when that happens in?future.¡±

More broadly, Professor Ferguson said the ¡°scientific community has responded remarkably¡± during the pandemic.

¡°The sort of things which typically drive academics ¨C academic competition, publishing in the best journals ¨C have gone by the wayside, with basically everyone publishing online preprints all the time, sharing data very freely,¡± he?said.

¡°Obviously, the vaccine development effort and public-private partnership between industries and universities has been very encouraging, and the international coordination.¡±

But he added that in age of polarisation, ¡°the political response has become more and more difficult¡±.

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He also thought the pandemic had ¡°given the public more of a?sense of how scientific research works¡± ¨C that it was?not about sudden ¡°breakthroughs¡± but a?¡°more messy¡± process.

On the question of whether university teaching should have been solely online in the UK this term, Professor Ferguson said that ¡°we could have learned a?few lessons from the?US¡± and had more coordination on testing approaches across the sector, but that a?lot of universities ¡°have done a?very good job¡± of minimising risks.

Asked about his ¡°Professor Lockdown¡± tag in some media coverage, he said there was a ¡°completely false narrative that I?was responsible for lockdown in this country¡± or around the world.

In reality, ¡°multiple¡± teams of scientists advised the government, he added.

¡°It¡¯²õ unfortunate that in the media people like heroes and villains,¡± Professor Ferguson continued. ¡°Most scientists, myself included, are more human than?that.¡±

It is ¡°unfortunate¡± that there is ¡°an?element of political discourse which wants to?look for someone to?blame¡±, he added.

On the wider picture, Professor Ferguson said that ¡°quite remarkable¡± progress on vaccines means that if everyone in the UK over age of?50 can be vaccinated by the end of March, we could be at ¡°something closer to normal by Easter next year¡±.

But he cautioned that ¡°if we don¡¯t keep a?lid¡± on the pandemic through to March and April, there could be ¡°rapidly surging cases and deaths¡±.

He closed by reflecting on the relationship between scientific advisers and the government.

¡°At the end of the day, the government makes policy,¡± Professor Ferguson said. ¡°I?don¡¯t think it¡¯²õ scientists¡¯ role to?say, ¡®The government should do?this.¡¯ I?think it¡¯²õ our role to say, ¡®This is the evidence base, these are the uncertainties; if you do ¡®A¡¯ this is likely to happen, if you do ¡®B¡¯ this is likely to happen.¡¯¡±

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He added: ¡°I wouldn¡¯t criticise any politician for making the decisions they did at a?certain point, certainly not in this country. What I¡¯ve seen is people struggling to do they best they can. Not all of those decisions have been perfect¡­both on the science side and the political decision-making side.¡±

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com