Chinese businesspeople have shown faith in the buoyancy of student flows from their country, with tens of thousands of firms obtaining licences to provide study abroad advice since Covid-19 controls were?relaxed?last December.

More than 27,000 new education agencies were established in China between mid-December and mid-May, according to a??from Vienna-based higher education consultancy Bonard. The country appears on track for a record year of new agencies, surpassing the 2021 peak of about 45,000.

While many new agencies are in the ¡°tier 1¡± commercial magnets of Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, plenty more have been launched in the emergent ¡°new tier 1¡± cities ¨C particularly the giant inland metropolises of Chengdu and Wuhan.

The report highlights the prospects in the 15 ¡°new tier 1¡± cities, most of which are more populous than London or New York. Together with the tier 1 megalopolises, they have produced considerably more new agencies than more than 80 other cities.

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Bonard¡¯s China branch director, Grace Zhu, said the past three years had ¡°changed the landscape¡± of the country¡¯s education sector. ¡°Global educators should be aware of how the Chinese market is developing, and fine-tune their strategy accordingly. This is an unprecedented opportunity¡­to re-establish their presence in China, but it¡¯s essential to be prepared.¡±

Bonard¡¯s chief operating officer, Igor Skibickij, said the tier 1 centres were the ¡°tip of the iceberg¡± for student recruitment, with many other cities trying to attract talent by offering residency permits for overseas graduates with degrees from ¡°well-established¡± universities.

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¡°That gives access to housing and better¡­healthcare and social services for the residents,¡± he told a?. He said the education agent market had ¡°exploded¡± following moves to deregulate the industry, particularly 2017 changes to approval processes for agencies and the amount of registered capital they required.

The report tracks newly incorporated enterprises that have listed study abroad among their activities in business licence applications. Mr Skibickij said the category was not restricted to ¡°traditional¡± office-based agencies. ¡°It can be boutique studios; it can be several individuals joining together forming an online agency; it can be individual counsellors and recruiters that do it part-time,¡± he said.

¡°Not all of them will¡­end up focusing on study abroad. Many of them won¡¯t, but many of them will.¡±

Bonard interviewed 15 agencies and found that 60 per cent were optimistic about the study abroad market in 2024. More than half of the established agencies were already seeing an uptick in applications, particularly for study in the US and Australia.

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¡°The market is recovering, and I predict it will get even better,¡± one new agency told interviewers.

Mr Skibickij said growth in China¡¯s middle class, which has been?projected?to comprise 40 per cent of the country¡¯s population by 2030, would compensate for population decline and the lowest economic growth in decades.

¡°People will have better jobs, better education, better disposable income and [be] strongly predisposed to send their children¡­overseas. Their income will range anywhere between $20,000 to $50,000 [?16,000-?39,000] annually per household. By the time their child reaches the¡­maturity of going to study overseas, they will have enough savings accumulated.¡±

While top Chinese universities were scaling the rankings tables, he said they could only accommodate about 1 per cent of the millions of school graduates. ¡°You can imagine how many of them will not get into the institution of their choice.¡±

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com