International student flows to New Zealand are recovering so strongly that universities¡¯ main challenge will be keeping up with demand, according to an analyst.

Keri Ramirez said?that more than 16,000 visas for first-time students had been approved between January and August ¨C about 8 per cent more than the equivalent period last year ¨C with overseas commencements on track to match pre-pandemic figures in 2024 or 2025.

He said universities could expect a ¡°surge¡± in applications from applicants who had been ¡°in the pipeline¡± before New Zealand¡¯s extended border closures and from people enticed by the country¡¯s ¡°re-engagement¡± with students abroad.

¡°Covid significantly affected the level of resources that universities have [and] the environment financially¡­is still challenging,¡± said Mr Ramirez, managing director of the Studymove consultancy. ¡°When you have this combination of not having enough resources just to process applications, but you are also seeing more applications, it brings a challenge internally.¡±

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He said Canada and Australia had experienced similar problems during their post-pandemic rebounds. He also criticised the ¡°misconception¡± that?subsequent crackdowns?in those two countries had driven the recovery in New Zealand.

New Zealand?was?a ¡°magnificent study destination¡± with great natural beauty, warm people and quality institutions, he said. The cost-competitiveness of its fees, averaging 12 per cent less than Australia¡¯s for undergraduate degrees and 27 per cent less for taught postgraduate courses, was an added attraction.

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While international flows to New Zealand¡¯s eight universities had?largely recovered?by 2023, the new figures suggest numbers in schools, English colleges and vocational training establishments are catching up and promising universities more pathway students in the future.

Mr Ramirez said the increase in demand from China and Japan had been modest this year, but India and the US ¨C New Zealand¡¯s other top markets ¨C had shown solid growth. Visa approvals had risen by 24 per cent from Germany, by 42 per cent from Sri Lanka and by 94 per cent from Nepal compared?with?the first eight months of 2023.

Demand from Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines appeared flat or declining.

He said only about 45 per cent of new overseas students in New Zealand used education agents¡¯ services, compared?with 73 per cent in Australia. Institutions should explore ways of engaging ¡°more effectively¡± with agents,?Mr Ramirez?said.

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But New Zealand could also expect Australian institutions to expand their transnational education activities, with offshore students excluded from Canberra¡¯s proposed international student caps. This meant ¡°more competition¡± for study abroad activities, which were an ¡°important¡± part of New Zealand¡¯s recruitment efforts.

Mr Ramirez said that, overall, Australia¡¯s policy changes would favour New Zealand. ¡°But in some instances [they] will also represent a challenge and I think study abroad is going to be one of them.¡±

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com