University leaders must brace for more ¡°black swan events¡± amid an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical environment, according to the outgoing president of the University of Toronto.

With Canadian institutions feeling the financial strain after the?federal government slashed international student visas,?Meric Gertler said more shocks are sure to come, regardless of which party wins the upcoming snap election.

Gertler, who is stepping down?after 12 years as president of Toronto?at the end of June, said universities had been further damaged by a breakdown in relations between Canada and India,?resulting in what he called a ¡°body blow¡± for the sector.

Overall, there has been a 40 to 50 per cent decline in international student numbers across Canadian institutions, but Toronto only saw a less than a 6 per cent drop because of its efforts to diversify its intake by targeting newer markets, such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia, Gertler said.

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Like in Australia, where overseas student numbers were restricted by a left-wing government, the caps in Canada?were introduced by a Liberal Party once thought to be pro-immigration.

Gertler said this proved the importance of planning for ¡°black swan events¡± that can lead to precipitous declines in major markets.

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¡°We didn¡¯t know what kind of bad surprises were in our future, but we thought it was prudent to plan for those no matter what form they might take, and I think our planning really paid off.¡±

Another unforeseen event currently shaping global trends in higher education is Donald Trump¡¯s second presidential term.

But this one is producing some ¡°silver linings¡± for Toronto, with US applications up 23 per cent on last year, according to Gertler.

¡°They view us as a kinder, gentler and certainly safer destination than many American institutions.

¡°I think for parents these days safety is a really critical concern. They look at gun violence in the US, for example, and Canada has a much, much better track record there,?so for all those reasons and more¡­we¡¯re an attractive location¡±.

Trump¡¯s attacks on US higher education have been beneficial for the university¡¯s recruitment of staff as well. Three Yale University professors??later this year because of the political climate in the US.

Trump has also had an unforeseen impact on Canadian politics. The Liberal Party,?whose grip on power was seen as loosening after the departure of former prime minister Justin Trudeau?are now slight favourites for the snap election called by his successor Mark Carney this month, in part because of the resistance shown to the White House.

Whether Carney¡¯s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre¡¯s Conservatives form the next government, Gertler said institutions must cultivate good relationships with political parties ¡°of every stripe¡±.

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¡°You cannot afford to burn any bridges, and you have to be prepared for any outcome, and that¡¯s just smart government relations and I spent a fair bit of my time doing that kind of thing.¡±

He said he does not envy college leaders in the ¡°exposed and vulnerable¡± US sector right now but warned that it will not all be plain sailing for his colleagues in Canada.

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¡°It¡¯s fair to say that certain social trends, certain political trends do have a tendency to seep north of the border and migrate from the US to Canada with a definite impact.

¡°I do think that the working lives of university leaders in Canada will become more complex and complicated and challenging over time as a result of what¡¯s going on and¡­all of the changes to immigration policy.¡±

That will be an issue for his successor,?recently revealed to be neuroscientist Melanie Woodin, to address.

Across his 12 years in charge, Gertler said the biggest challenge he faced?was the fallout from the Israel-Gaza war on campus?¨C particularly as it came off the back of the Covid-19 pandemic.

¡°Over that time, I think we saw the quality of social interaction declining,¡± he said.

¡°I think extended periods of virtual interaction where people interacted through social media and not through face-to-face interaction led to a degrading in the quality of discourse.¡±

Students set up a pro-Palestinian encampment that was eventually torn down after Toronto was granted an injunction by the courts.

Nevertheless, Gertler said he was proud of his institution¡¯s response and believed that not treating the role of president as a ¡°popularity contest¡± was good advice.

¡°I didn¡¯t make any friends. I got a lot of complaints from people who are very supportive of the Palestinian cause and people who are very supportive of Israel.

¡°We bent over backwards and showed unusual patience in accommodating freedom of expression and academic freedom, feeling that it was important for us to do so even if we were disappointed in the quality of the public conversation happening on our campuses about these issues.¡±

He also said that consultation is crucial ¨C and that people are more willing to accept a decision if they feel they have had the chance to express their views.

¡°It¡¯s often a source of great frustration to people who come from outside our sector who say, why do things always take so long in your world?

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¡°And it¡¯s really important that we take that time and move at the speed of trust, as they say, so that would be another key bit of advice I would give my successor.¡±

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com