There are high stakes for universities in the upcoming US presidential election, even if neither candidate has set out an extensive higher education policy agenda ¨C and students¡¯ votes could play a key role in the result.

In the run-up to the 5 November poll, Kamala Harris has mostly embraced the Biden administration¡¯s plans for supporting historically black colleges and universities, student debt relief, the restoration of diversity and inclusion policies, and making immigration easier for talented academics.

However, in recent weeks she has signalled a clean break from the ¡°college for all¡± blueprint of her Democratic predecessors, by pledging to ¡°get rid of the unnecessary degree requirements for federal jobs¡±.

It was unclear how supportive Donald Trump is of the controversial Project 2025 policy playbook crafted by his allies at a conservative thinktank, which advocates the shuttering of the Department of Education, but Patricia McGuire, president of Trinity Washington University, said it ¡°spells out a clear desire to debilitate if not demolish many universities¡±.

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Professor McGuire said a second Trump administration would be ¡°horrific for higher education¡± ¨C particularly if the Republicans also retain control of the House of Representatives.

¡°We¡¯ll see a ratcheting-up of public show trials of presidents and trustees even more egregious than the hearing that brought down president [Claudine] Gay of Harvard after 7 October [2023],¡± she predicted.

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¡°The long knives will be ready ¨C and, sadly, wielded by many graduates of the very institutions the right-wingers seek to debilitate.¡±

State politics have led to restrictions on academic freedom, bans on diversity initiatives and reviews of curricula, and Professor McGuire said a Trump victory would allow places such as Florida and Texas to be even more oppressive.

¡°It¡¯s all open for attack, and higher ed is not prepared for the fight,¡± Professor McGuire warned.

Democratic control of the presidency or any of Congress could ease the pressure on university leaders, for example avoiding major increases in taxes on endowments, said Chris Marsicano, assistant professor of educational studies at Davidson College.

¡°This election is quite possibly the most important presidential election for higher education institutions in a quarter-century,¡± said Dr Marsicano.

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¡°There is a sense among lobbyists for higher education institutions that right now the GOP has a target on universities¡¯ backs and is willing to ¡®punish¡¯ them for perceived left-leaning behaviour. Only if voters return a divided Congress will colleges and universities begin to breathe easy.¡±

Frederick Hess, director of education policy studies for the American Enterprise Institute, said leaders were justifiably nervous because they have been ¡°blithely alienating the right¡± for years, while the Democrats have leaned into concerns about cost and completion.

¡°If Trump wins and Republicans control one or both chambers, colleges could be in for some tough sledding,¡± said Dr Hess.

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¡°If Democrats have a good day, it¡¯s not clear that it will translate to much in the way of resources or support ¨C and the Biden-Harris loan forgiveness push has not been a good advertisement for the sector¡¯s value.¡±

To have a good day, Democrats will have to repeat their success of 2020, when they helped produce a record jump in the number of students voting.

The Harris campaign has been heavily targeting students with digital advertisements in the key Pennsylvania race, while they could also prove pivotal in other swing states including North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan.

¡°It is entirely possible that student turnout will be the difference between a Trump win, a narrow Harris win, or a Harris landslide,¡± Dr Marsicano said.

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However, Professor McGuire said that it was a ¡°toss-up¡± whether students would vote for Ms Harris, noting that Israel¡¯s war in Gaza had ¡°galvanised collegiate opposition¡± to the Biden-Harris administration.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com