US colleges and universities saw their undergraduate enrolment increase this academic year for the first time since the Covid pandemic, only to see their?first-year numbers start to drop.

Total undergraduate enrolment nationwide rose by 2.1 per cent over 2022 levels, according to the first round of estimates for the autumn semester from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Centre.

Yet first-year enrolment appears to be down by 3.6 per cent, reversing a 4.6 per cent gain last year, leaving first-year numbers nationwide just 0.8 per cent above?autumn 2021 levels, according to the Clearinghouse.

¡°That¡¯s quite a surprise,¡± said Douglas Shapiro, executive director of the research centre, a non-profit organisation that collects and analyses data on behalf of US colleges and universities.

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US higher education has long known that it¡¯s facing a so-called enrolment cliff as the numbers of high school graduates decline in many parts of the country, Dr Shapiro told a briefing with reporters to outline the findings.

Yet the slide among first-year traditional-age students appears sharper than the overall population declines, and could reflect a number of factors, he said, including students increasingly questioning the value of four-year degrees.

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The new Clearinghouse data did show gains in shorter-term credentials, with a 9.9 per cent jump in enrolments in undergraduate certificate programs, compared to a 3.6 per cent rise in associate degrees and a 0.9 per cent improvement for bachelor¡¯s degrees.

The first-year declines appear especially pronounced at more expensive institutions. By selectivity of four-year institutions, those rated ¡°very competitive¡± saw their first-year enrolments fall 7.3 per cent compared?with last year, while the most selective group had a 5.9 per cent decline. Least-selective campuses lost just 0.9 per cent.

Black, Hispanic and Asian students accounted for most of this year¡¯s enrolment growth at the undergraduate and graduate levels. Enrolment of white students fell at the undergraduate and graduate levels, with a 9.4 per cent drop among freshmen.

Historically black colleges and universities saw disproportionately large gains in undergraduate enrolment, up 6.1 per cent from last year.

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The Clearinghouse data is based on an initial sampling covering 55 per cent of the degree-granting institutions that participate in its surveys, with about 9.6 million undergraduate and graduate students.

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Despite the losses among first-years, all major sectors of US higher education showed gains. That recovery was led by community colleges, which were hardest hit by the pandemic and preliminarily showed a 4.4 per cent increase in enrolment over last year.

Graduate enrolment increased 0.7 per cent over last year, with a 5.7 per cent rise in graduate certificate programmes.

Among the 46 states for which the Clearinghouse believes it has sufficient data at this point in the semester, six of them ¨C California, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland and Wyoming ¨C had overall enrolment growth of 4 per cent or greater. Nearly a quarter of the states had enrolment losses, led by Vermont, with a 4.7 per cent decline.

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Among students of traditional undergraduate ages, enrolment is up across all income levels. The single-year gains, however, are most robust among students from the lowest-income neighbourhoods, up 3.6 per cent, compared with a 1.4 per cent increase among students from highest-income communities.

Male enrolment increased 2.2 per cent while female enrolment rose 1.2 per cent.

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Enrolment in healthcare programmes rose 5.7 per cent among those seeking undergraduate certificates and 4.4 per cent among those pursuing associate degrees, after declines during the pandemic.

paul.basken@timeshighereducation.com