US universities recruited fewer overseas students this autumn in the first fall in international enrolment for four years, according to early figures.

Institute of International Education (IIE) and the Department of State¡¯s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs?shows that 46 per cent of institutions reported an increase in new international student recruitment, 42 per cent reported a decrease and 12 per cent held steady.

But the Open Doors survey of more than 690 institutions says that the total number of sign-ups from overseas is estimated to have fallen by 5 per cent for 2024-25,?following three years of post-pandemic growth.

Although just a snapshot of around half of all international students, Mirka Martel, head of research, evaluation and learning at IIE, told?Times Higher Education?that the data was a good indicator of trends for the current academic year.

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While the number of undergraduates has rebounded, the survey found that the level of postgraduates has eased off from record highs seen recently.

¡°Since the pandemic, the number of Indian students has nearly doubled, so you¡¯re looking at rates of increase that are historic,¡± said Dr Martel.

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¡°At some point we are going to reach a stabilisation point and I think, particularly on the graduate numbers, we may be beginning to see that.¡±

Overall, the total number of international students, including continuing learners, grew by 3 per cent in?the fourth successive year of growth.

US institutions have been?urged to be ¡°proactive and creative¡±?in attracting a more diverse international student body ahead of an oncoming ¡°enrolment cliff¡±.

Despite the levelling off of Indian student numbers, the Open Doors figures show that the subcontinent remains the highest priority for international recruitment.

Two-thirds of institutions are prioritising undergraduate outreach in India, and 81 per cent for postgraduate recruitment. The other most important markets for graduate students were China (43 per cent of universities), Ghana and Nigeria (both 41 per cent).

The international education sector?has warned that it wants to avoid four years of ¡°playing defence¡±?against the anti-immigration policies of the recently re-elected Donald Trump.

But Dr Martel said other factors were typically more important in determining how well institutions perform and where students want to go.

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¡°Politics and rhetoric can be a factor, but still the quality of education and then the cost of that education is what is most important to international students.¡±

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However, Carol Spreen, associate professor of international education at New York University, said changes in visa and immigration policies and political attacks on higher education institutions under the Trump administration would ¡°undoubtedly adversely affect the mobility of students¡± going forwards.

The pandemic, gun violence, perceptions of a lack of safety on US campuses, and skyrocketing tuition and living costs have also negatively impacted student mobility in recent years, she added.

Some had hoped the US could capitalise on?new restrictions imposed in several of its largest English-speaking rivals, but the statistics do not suggest that has happened yet.

Dr Martel said that ¡°resting on the large increases¡± of previous years will not keep the sector moving forward as is needed.

¡°There are these fluctuations that are going to happen, and it means that the US higher education sector has to respond accordingly,¡± she said.

¡°We need to consider what are the needs of those international students that are coming into the pipeline and make sure that we can accommodate them and make sure that we can continue to grow those numbers.¡±

The snapshot results were released alongside more detailed figures for the 2023-24 academic year.??and supported more than 378,000 jobs.

However, Fanta Aw, chief executive of Nafsa: Association of International Educators, warned the sector not to be complacent.

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¡°The annual increase in economic activity is about half of what it was the year before, signalling that the pent-up demand for a US education following the pandemic is subsiding,¡± she said. ¡°Meanwhile, competition for the world¡¯s best and brightest is increasing.¡±

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com