The rise of German universities in the 19th century was accompanied by the increasing prominence of the German language as the international language of science ¨C even though national languages continued to predominate. When US universities attained hegemony in the first half of the 20th century, English became more prominent. So as Chinese universities continue to shoot up the global rankings, are right to be whether, in?time, Chinese will become science¡¯s lingua franca?

The rise of China is certainly startling. Indeed, its upward trajectory in such a short time is unprecedented. Six of China¡¯s 200 or so top research universities are now in the top?100 of the Times Higher Education rankings, and many others are rising fast. This reflects the country¡¯s unparalleled investment of approximately $182?billion (?134 billion) in several excellence initiatives during recent decades.

China also has the world¡¯s largest academic system in terms of student numbers. Pre-Covid, it had attracted 500,000 international students to its universities, most to study Chinese language but with an increasing number registering for degree programmes. And no country has matched China¡¯s rate of increase in producing patents and scientific publications. If its economy continues to steam ahead and if continues to invest significant resources in science and technology ¨C as well as in the higher education systems of other countries involved in its Belt and Road initiative ¨C its global influence will continue to expand.

However, the expectation that Chinese universities are on a one-way ticket to the global top?10?. Among the issues they face are high levels of bureaucracy, low levels of institutional autonomy, direct political control of the internal management and intellectual life of campuses, and the political perils of open access to information, especially in the humanities and social sciences.

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Moreover, the hegemony of English within global higher education is deeply rooted. The rise of German and English occurred when academic systems were still small and the number of scientific journals was modest. But there are now 79?million articles indexed in the Web of?Science ¨C and 90?per cent of them are in?English. The proportions are similar in the other major citation indices.

Degree programmes in English are also in high demand ¨C including in universities in non-anglophone countries. A recent Studyportals study counted 27,874 English-taught programmes outside the main four English-speaking countries, with numbers increasing significantly in recent years.

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And while Chinese has many more native speakers (918?million) than English (379?million), slightly more people (1.132?billion) can speak English than can speak Chinese (1.117?billion). Further, English has official status in 55?sovereign states, including six Asian countries ¨C with Singapore adopting it as its main language.

Of the top?100 universities ranked by?THE, 64?are English-medium (including several in Hong Kong),?while several others, such as ETH Zurich and several Dutch universities, use English extensively. Even the four branch campuses sponsored by Chinese universities all use English as the predominant medium of instruction.

By contrast, Chinese currently has low visibility as a language of teaching outside China or as an international medium for scientific communication. While the number of internationally cited publications by Chinese authors has significantly increased, their international visibility is limited.

China has made a major investment, estimated at $10?billion annually, in government-sponsored Confucius Institutes, which offer Chinese language and culture programmes. In?2019, there were more than 530 on six continents, and the Chinese Ministry of Education estimated that?100?million people were studying Chinese language worldwide. However, there has recently been considerable controversy concerning the institutes, and many have been closed.

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All of this helps to explain the pragmatic approach taken by China itself to the use of Chinese in international academia. As in all academic powers, language remains a linchpin of national pride, and academic leaders recognise that international engagement should not be to the detriment of the national language. But while the ubiquity of English in the scientific literature can be an inconvenience to Chinese scientists, it is not a major obstacle to the country¡¯s scientific progress.

That is why the Chinese government has no plans to push Chinese as the international academic language of science. In fact, China has launched its own international academic and scientific journals in English with the intention over the long run to make them internationally competitive. According to , the government is spending?more than?Rmb200?million ($29?million) each year to help improve the calibre of about 280 journals, most of which publish in English.

On top of that, the accessibility of increasingly accurate translations of scientific literature from Chinese into English has made research cooperation easier. The promise of quantum-driven artificial intelligence should make translation even more seamless in future decades.

Such accelerated technological advances will no doubt weaken the domination of English. Moreover, the teaching of Chinese in universities around the world will certainly increase in line with China¡¯s growing global impact. However, scientific collaboration, global academic discourse and much publication will remain in English.

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Philip G. Altbach is research professor and distinguished fellow, Center for International Higher Education, Boston College. Gerard Postiglione is professor emeritus in the Faculty of Education, University of Hong Kong.