Technical changes to Australia¡¯s visa processing system may not be the ¡°panacea¡± that educators have been praying for, an analyst has warned.

Neil Fitzroy, Australian managing director of the London-based Oxford International Education Group, warned that the pending removal of the widely reviled ¡°ministerial direction 107¡± (MD107) ¨C which requires officials to prioritise visa applications from people enrolled at institutions with low immigration risk ratings ¨C might not revive overseas student numbers at struggling universities and colleges.

Mr Fitzroy said overseas interest in Australian education had been so damaged by the government¡¯s visa processing changes that visa processing rearrangements may make little difference. And if a backlog of visa applications still existed for less fancied institutions, there could be too few officials to handle it.

Many staff had been diverted to manage a mounting caseload of visa applications from?asylum seekers?and students already in Australia, he said.

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Moreover, revoking MD107 would not affect other mechanisms that had contributed to record high visa rejection rates, including the ¡°genuine student test¡± which allows applications to be denied on subjective grounds.

Mr Fitzroy said commentators tended to treat MD107 as ¡°shorthand¡± for ¡°every problem we¡¯ve got in the visa issuance system. [Rescinding] MD107 will only change prioritisation. I don¡¯t think it will solve many of the woes of the sector.¡±

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Universities Australia says MD107 caused 60,000 fewer visas to be granted in the first half of 2024, costing its members billions of dollars. Australia¡¯s government has promised to quash MD107 as soon as legislation to cap international student numbers is gazetted.

Education minister Jason Clare said the caps were ¡°a heck of a lot better than ministerial direction 107. The legislation has now been in the parliament more than 160 days. It¡¯s time to pass the bill and get rid of ministerial direction 107,¡± he told the Australian International Education Conference in Melbourne.

Department of Education officials expect the legislation will be passed and MD107 removed in late November, according to first assistant secretary Karen Sandercock. She said bureaucrats were working to ensure that ¡°visa processing systems are absolutely ready¡± so that institutions that had experienced the ¡°lumpy impacts¡± of MD107 could recruit the students allowed by their caps.

Ms Sandercock also said it might not be necessary to replace MD107 with an alternative arrangement. Mr Clare¡¯s office has previously indicated the government¡¯s intention to replace MD107 with another ministerial direction.

Sector representatives believe a replacement mechanism will be necessary to avoid inflicting a visa logjam on low-risk universities, because MD107¡¯s revocation would mean applications were processed in chronological order. This would force officials to prioritise applications from students enrolled with medium- and high-risk institutions, many of which have been delayed for months.

But Mr Fitzroy said such concerns could be misplaced. ¡°[The] reality is we don¡¯t have a significant backlog any more because people aren¡¯t applying,¡± he said.

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Student visa applications from outside Australia have declined by about half compared with the volumes of a year earlier, according to recent Department of ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ Affairs data.

Mr Fitzroy said the?postponement of changes to institutions¡¯ immigration risk ratings?also risked sowing chaos. ÁñÁ«ÊÓƵ affairs minister Tony Burke has indicated that the ratings will be updated when MD107 is removed.

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Mr Fitzroy said this meant that the ratings could now be changed in the lead-up to Christmas, a peak visa lodgement period for students. Applicants who had spent months getting their paperwork in order could suddenly be forced to take formal English language tests ¨C a requirement for students enrolled with higher-risk institutions.

The?Koala?international education newsletter has??that 162 institutions would have had their risk ratings downgraded if the update had proceeded as scheduled in September.

The?Koala?also reported that 35 institutions would have had their risk ratings improved. ¡°That was a result of stringent recruitment practices,¡± Mr Fitzroy said. ¡°It could be argued that¡­those efforts [have come to] nought.¡±

Charles Sturt University pro vice-chancellor Mike Ferguson, who helped design the risk rating system when he was an immigration department official, said risk rating improvements should be honoured and other institutions should have their ratings reset at the levels before MD107 was issued.

¡°This would avoid double-punishment for those most unfairly impacted by MD107,¡± Mr Ferguson wrote on?. ¡°It would also be a good way of drawing a line in the sand as we move to the next era of international education in Australia.¡±

Times Higher Education?asked Mr Burke¡¯s office whether the government would accept Mr Ferguson¡¯s proposal. It did not respond.

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com