The Australian government¡¯s plan to cap international enrolments next year appears to have been thwarted, with reports that the opposition will vote against the underpinning legislation.

With the Australian Greens firmly against caps, opposition from the Liberal Party and its National coalition partners would give the bill no prospect of success in its current form.

The development will do little to relieve the uncertainty facing educational administrators as they struggle to nail down next year¡¯s student numbers.

The caps have loomed as a nightmare scenario for some universities and colleges, potentially forcing them to rescind places that international students had already accepted. The proposal would cause most difficulty to top-ranked universities that recruit tens of thousands of foreign students and private colleges with such low indicative caps that they faced bankruptcy.

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However, the legislation¡¯s apparent deferral means the sector remains saddled with ministerial direction 107 (MD107), a triaging mechanism which delays the processing of visas for students who come from countries ¨C or are enrolled with institutions ¨C deemed as posing moderate or high immigration risk.

Visa delays and rejections associated with MD107 have particularly affected institutions that draw substantial enrolments from South Asia and parts of Africa and Latin America. The government has promised to replace MD107, but only after parliament passes the bill to limit international student numbers.

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The legislation was listed for debate in the Senate on 18 November, but that did not eventuate. Education minister Jason Clare confirmed that MD107 would remain as ¡°the de facto cap¡± if the Senate failed to pass the bill.

¡°The National Party MPs and senators in this building¡­are quietly telling me they want this bill passed,¡± he told journalists. ¡°They know that at the moment, the way the system works [is] benefiting the big unis in the city and it¡¯s hurting the small unis in the bush. That¡¯s why I want to pass this legislation, so that I can help those smaller universities in the regions.¡±

The International Education Association of Australia warned that the ¡°blunt instrument¡± of enrolment caps would now be replaced by the ¡°vagaries¡± of MD107. ¡°This will involve giving absolute visa approval preference to some providers over others,¡± said CEO Phil Honeywood.

¡°By just opposing the¡­legislation, the coalition is not providing our sector with any apparent alternative policy. We¡¯re going to have a dog¡¯s breakfast situation from now until the start of the academic year¡­only a few months away.¡±

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But Independent Higher Education Australia, which represents private colleges, praised the coalition¡¯s intervention. ¡°[It] demonstrates a clear understanding of the potential damage this legislation could inflict on our¡­higher education system and our reputation as a premier destination for international students,¡± said CEO Peter Hendy.

¡°This bill, if passed, would undermine years of hard work and investment in building Australia¡¯s international education reputation.¡±

The Group of eight said the coalition¡¯s decision to oppose the bill was a ¡°welcome relief¡±. Universities Australia, the Innovative Research Universities and the Reginal Universities Network said the government should rescind MD107 immediately.

¡°Some universities, particularly those in outer suburban and regional areas¡­are on their knees due to the financial impact of this destructive instrument,¡± said CEO Luke Sheehy.

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He said a ¡°vibrant higher education sector¡± was unachievable without revenue from international education. ¡°This appears to be lost on both sides of politics as they continue to treat international students as cannon fodder in the political battle over migration and housing.¡±

The National Tertiary Education Union¡¯s president, Alison Barnes, said vice-chancellors who had ¡°used the proposed caps as a smokescreen to threaten jobs must now abandon their terrible plans¡±.

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Times Higher Education sought comment from the office of shadow education minister Sarah Henderson.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com